Britain's administration is testing out a fresh approach on leaving the EU, but this isn't equivalent to a change in direction. The modification is mostly in tone.
Previously, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves described Britain's detachment from Europe as a fixed element of the national situation, awkward to handle perhaps, but ultimately unavoidable. Currently, they are willing to acknowledge it as a serious problem.
Addressing attendees at a local economic summit this week, the finance minister included Brexit alongside the pandemic and austerity as factors behind persistent economic lethargy. She repeated this perspective at an IMF meeting in Washington, noting that the country's productivity challenge has been worsened by the way in which the Britain departed from the European Union.
This was a precisely formulated declaration, attributing harm not to the departure decision but to its implementation; faulting the officials who handled it, not the public who supported it. This distinction is essential when the budget is unveiled next month. The aim is to attribute certain economic problems to the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson without seeming to disrespect the hopes of leave voters.
Among evidence-focused observers, the economic argument is mostly resolved. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Britain's long-term productivity is four percent reduced than it could have been with continued EU membership.
In addition to the expenses from new trade barriers, there has been a sustained decline in corporate spending due to political instability and regulatory ambiguity. Additionally the lost potential of administrative effort being redirected toward a task for which no preparation had been made, since few proponents had thoroughly evaluated the practical implications of making it happen.
When facts are undeniable, officials find it hard to stay impartial. The central bank chief informed last week's IMF meeting that he takes no side on EU exit then stated that its impact on growth will be adverse for the foreseeable future.
He forecast a mild corrective rebalancing over the long term, which offers little comfort to a chancellor who must address a major funding gap immediately. Taxes are set to rise, and Reeves wants the public to recognize that Brexit is a partial cause.
This admission is worth making because it is true. That doesn't guarantee political benefit from saying it. The same reality was apparent when the government delivered its previous tax-raising budget and during the general election campaign, which the party fought while sidestepping the certainty of tax increases.
Now, with the administration being neither new nor popular, explaining economic hardship comes across as making excuses to numerous constituents. There might be more benefit in blaming the Conservatives for all problems if they were the sole opposition and a credible threat. The usual ruling party tactic in a bipartisan contest is to assert responsibility for fixing the previous administration's mess and caution voters. The emergence of another party makes things harder.
Ideological gaps between the main opponents are minimal, but the electorate observe interpersonal conflict more than shared beliefs. Those attracted to the Reform leader due to lost faith in the system—especially on border policy—don't see the two parties as similar entities. One party has a record of allowing immigration, while the other does not—a difference their leader will consistently highlight.
The Reform leader is less eager to talk about EU exit, in part since it is a legacy jointly owned with Tories and also because there are no positive outcomes to highlight. If challenged, he may contend that the goal was undermined by poor execution, but even that defense admits failure. Simpler to change the subject.
This explains why the government feels increasingly assured raising the issue. The prime minister's recent party conference speech marked a turning point. Earlier, he had addressed UK-EU relations in bureaucratic language, focusing on a partnership renewal that targeted non-controversial trade barriers like customs checks while steering clear of the divisive cultural issues at the core of the Brexit aftermath.
During his address, Starmer stopped short of pro-EU arguments, but he suggested familiarity with previous assertions. He mentioned "false promises on the side of that bus"—referring to leave campaign pledges about health service money—in the framework of "dubious solutions" sold by politicians whose easy fixes worsen the nation's problems.
Leaving Europe was equated with Covid as difficult experiences endured by ordinary people in recent years. Comparing Brexit to a disease indicates a hardening of rhetoric, even if the financial steps being negotiated in Brussels remain the same.
The aim is to link Farage to a well-known example of deceptive campaigning, implying he cannot be trusted; that he capitalizes on frustration and creates conflict but cannot manage effectively.
Recent suspensions of four Kent councillors from Reform's local government team supports that narrative. Recorded videos of a video conference showed internal squabbling and recrimination, highlighting the challenges amateurs face when delivering public services on tight finances—far tougher than distributing leaflets about cutting waste or managing borders.
This line of attack is productive for Labour, but it depends on the administration's own performance being good enough that electing Reform seems a dangerous experiment. Moreover, this is a strategy for a later election that may not occur until 2029. If the leadership wish to appear as antidotes to Faragism, they must demonstrate in the interim with a positively defined agenda of their own.
Restrictions exist to what is possible with a rhetorical shift, and time is short. How much easier to argue now that EU exit is harmful and Farage a fraud if they had stated this before. How many more options might they have? Do they merit praise for admitting it now when alternate justifications are exhausted? Yes. But the problem of reaching the obvious conclusion via the most circuitous route is that people question the procrastination. Starting from the truth is quicker.